The reader board at North Beach Elementary School in Seattle, sharing a sentiment that will likely continue into the fall as schools offer remote learning due to COVID-19. (Lisa Stiffler / GeekWire)
As University of Washington epidemiologist Brandon Guthrie sifts through mounds of research in his Seattle home office, seeking to better understand the whys and hows of COVID-19, in the background there are personal reminders of the importance of his work. Two reminders, in fact: one going into kindergarten, the other into fourth grade.
On Wednesday the superintendent of Seattle Public Schools, which his children attend, recommended that all classes should be taught remotely through online learning in the fall, “until the risk of significant transmission of COVID-19 has decreased enough to resume in-person instruction.” The school board will vote in August on the recommendation, which has the support of the teachers’ union. Seattle schools previously proposed a hybrid approach, blending in-person and remote learning.
While Guthrie wouldn’t second-guess the decision, it did not sit well with the UW global health scientist.
Brandon Guthrie, an epidemiologist with the University of Washington’s Department of Global Health.
“It makes me very sad that we are in a position where we’re having to do this, and people are feeling like this is the best option,” he said. “I hope that people are doing the work to make plans for how can we maximize the educational benefits to kids — that we don’t just fall back on what was done in the spring.”
Guthrie earlier this month led a project that compiled and summarized the approaches taken by 15 other countries that have reopened their schools during the pandemic, pulling lessons for the schools teaching America’s 56.6 million kids, from preschool to high school seniors.
Epidemiologists everywhere are scrambling to make sense of COVID, piecing together an understanding of a disease that defies convention, has caused hundreds of thousands of deaths and continues to upend lives across the planet. They’re looking at wide-ranging studies, teasing out relevant information to help guide informed decisions on everything from big issues like school openings to whether it’s OK to play at the beach.
Eric Lofgren, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Washington State University, is particularly concerned about the spread of infections to teachers and families if schools open in person.
“The conversation is being driven by the idea of ‘get the kids back in school, get the kids back in school’ that isn’t recognizing the risk to teachers and their families,” Lofgren said.
Teachers around the country have echoed those worries. Depending on the district, many educators are in higher risk age groups for COVID. There has not been a concerted effort to ensure their safety by providing personal protective equipment or training in how to use it.
Student-free halls at Loyal Heights Elementary School in Seattle. (Kurt Schlosser / GeekWire)
Guthrie’s study looked at safety strategies being practiced at schools internationally, which included combinations of requiring masks, reducing the number of students per classroom, temperature checks, social distancing and increased handwashing. Some countries have limited in-person classes to younger students who appear to be at lower risk of contracting and spreading COVID and from experiencing more severe symptoms.
Given the variable risks, both epidemiologists urged decision makers and the public to embrace some nuance and flexibility in decisions about schools. That includes looking at elementary, middle and high school differently based on COVID transmission and educational needs. The choices need not be all or nothing, and should be viewed as reversible, they said.
“Whether we reopen schools is a dial and not a switch,” Lofgren said, “and not a switch we can only flip once.”
They also questioned the priorities of government leaders related to social distancing policies and the push to reopen parts of the economy ahead of academic institutions. Washington’s bars and restaurants, for example, allow indoor seating at reduced capacity despite the surge in infections among young adults. Some 39% of COVID cases are in 20-39 year olds, according data shared Monday by the state Department of Health.
COVID-19 cases in Washington state by age, current as of July 20, 2020. (Washington Department of Health)
“One of the first [COVID] control measures was to close schools, and one of the last things we’re going to do is open schools,” Guthrie said. “That is insane.”
A key question that has been difficult to answer is the impact of school openings on COVID transmission. Infections can be harder to detect in kids given the asymptomatic cases, and there’s the challenge of doing effective contact tracing to map the source and path of transmission.
“One of my really important takeaways is anywhere you see infections among school kids, it’s really unclear whether those are true school outbreaks or if you’re seeing community outbreaks that are appearing in the schools,” Guthrie said.
He fears that an increase in COVID infections could be blamed erroneously on reopened schools. A recent article in the Washington Post, for example, reported that some teachers providing summer school instruction tested positive for coronavirus, but there was no indication of where it was contracted or if students were infected.
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